Pakistan Reader# 695, 7 November 2023
Shamini Velayutham
On 21 October, Nawaz Sharif returned home to launch his party's campaign ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for January 2024, following four years of self-imposed exile in London. Nawaz, who was previously overthrown in a military coup, held the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan for three non-consecutive terms. As the leader of one of the two dynastic parties that have historically controlled Pakistani politics, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N, was headed by Nawaz in the past. In a 2017 decision pertaining to accusations of corruption, the Supreme Court declared him ineligible to remain in office.
He was ordered a seven-year prison sentence the following year for corruption, which he denied. However, the sentence was suspended stating medical reasons, allowing him to receive treatment abroad as long as he returned within four weeks, a clause that he later broke for four years. Since his trip to the UK, Nawaz returned with a big fanfare right before the elections. On his return the Islamabad High Court granted him protective bail, which prevented him from being taken into custody before his court appearance.
Why did Nawaz return now?
First, the political circumstances. Pakistan has been facing economic, political turmoil and terrorism. PML-N when faced with elections wanted Nawaz to return as their leader to bring the party back to power in 2024. The systemic crackdown of PTI only made the party more popular and dwindled the PML-N’s support. Nawaz Sharif’s popularity stands vital to compete with the ever-growing popularity of PTI Chairman Imran Khan.
Second, a well-timed return. Nawaz Sharif scheduled his comeback in accordance with Pakistan's legal system. He intended to coincide his comeback with Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial's retirement, as the latter's support for Imran Khan was legendary. On 23 August, Nawaz during the interview stated that, "The chief justice is well aware that Imran Khan has wreaked havoc on Pakistan's economy, ethics, and culture. He has propagated violence and repeatedly violated the Constitution.” Nawaz has constantly accused Bandial of his support towards Imran Khan in the Toshakhana corruption case verdict. However, Nawaz Sharif believed that Faez Isa, his successor, would be a safer choice because he wasn't viewed as an acolyte of Imran Khan or the Army.
Third, Shift in military policy. Pakistan is dependent on foreign funders, particularly the International Monetary Fund, and coups frequently come with a significant cost in terms of international sanctions. Pakistan's military chose to send out a figurehead who would enable it to stay in the background and maintain control over its key priorities, which included the country's relations with China, the US, Afghanistan, and India. Imran Khan's nationalism fostered relationships with the armed forces as well. In contrast to his competitors, he had no ties to any particular province.
The military adored Imran Khan at first, then turned against him. Khan specifically named General Asim Munir COAS, as the person attempting to destroy his political party. Previously, he had been labelled as a traitor to General Bajwa, the former head of the army, who had played a crucial role in placing and maintaining him in office. In addition, he accused a general in the ISI of being behind an attempted assassination attempt on him. As Khan is ousted from the regime, political experts like Wajahat Massod feel that the military is inclined to give him another chance. Despite the tumultuous past, the military's policies are slowly in favour of Nawaz. It is also evident that Nawaz's return to Pakistan was not publicly opposed by the military, henceforth Nawaz could be the military's saviour.
What does his return signify?
First, the forthcoming elections. Sharif's choice to go back to Pakistan indicates that political forces have a reasonable amount of faith without reaching an agreement, Sharif would not have chosen to go back to Pakistan. The argument has merit in Pakistan, where the strong military has been charged with exerting influence in the political sphere. The country would benefit even if an agreement made it possible for Sharif to return to Pakistan. Particularly in recent years, Pakistan's politics have been extremely divisive. Therefore, Nawaz’s return would create political normalcy.
Second, a fresh start for Nawaz. Sharif appears to be unwilling to take up his political career and resume their old rivalry with the current military leadership. Supremo Nawaz Sharif on his first day of the arrival spoke to an extensive crowd of supporters at the famed Minar-i-Pakistan in Lahore. He stated, "I am meeting you today after several years, but my relationship of love with you is the same. There is no difference in this relationship. The love I am seeing in your eyes, I am proud of it." Sharif emphasized the personal toll that politics had inflicted. He discussed the deaths of his mother and wife "to politics" and expressed regret for not being able to give them a befitting send-off. The prospect of political normalcy returning to the nation is symbolized by his return.
Challenges awaiting Nawaz
Nawaz Sharif will need to address Pakistan's political and economic future as well as establish and improve his policies. Even while the IMF's prediction for the country's economy is getting a little better, there are still no simple solutions for the issues facing the country. The legality of Nawaz Sharif's earlier disqualification from the electoral process remains unclear, even though the PML-N has effectively fielded him as its prime ministerial candidate, should it win the 2018 elections.
There is a greater chance than ever that Nawaz Sharif would clash with the army head at some point, whether the current one or a successor, given the army's most recent incursion into the political sphere. The dynamics between Pakistan's prime ministers and army chiefs are determined by their respective ideologies, stances, and political outlook. The sheer structure of constitutional democracy, even one as weak as Pakistan, puts the brass at odds with the de facto chief executives, as militias are ill-equipped to govern complicated governments.
Views of the other political parties
PTI: The supremo of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has returned to the country, to the dismay of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which declared that the "coward fugitive is returning under judicial asylum". A PTI spokesman claimed that to facilitate the repatriation of a "national criminal" from London, the "state has buried shame, modesty, law and justice with its own hands."
MQM-P: As the political parties compete for control ahead of the elections, talks about potential cooperation have been initiated between the PML-N and the MQM-P by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Discussions about potential future collaboration have been held by both sides.
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